Retirement · 4% ruleUpdated 2026-05

FIRE Calculator 2026 — Can You Retire Early?

This free FIRE calculator tells you exactly when you can retire and live off your investments. FIRE (Financial Independence, Retire Early) is the strategy of aggressively saving and investing until your portfolio reaches 25–33× your annual expenses — at which point a safe withdrawal rate of 3–4% can cover your living costs indefinitely.

Whether you're pursuing lean FIRE on $30K/year, standard FIRE at $50K, or fat FIRE at $100K+, this calculator models your path based on your real savings rate, current assets, and expected returns. It uses inflation-adjusted (real) numbers so your projections stay in today's dollars.

Your FIRE number = Annual Expenses ÷ Withdrawal Rate. Spending$40,000/yr? You need $1,000,000 at the 4.0% rule. The savings rate is the single biggest lever you control — each extra dollar saved both shrinks the gap and grows faster via compounding.

Formula: FIRE Number = Annual Expenses ÷ Safe Withdrawal Rate · Years to FIRE = log(FIRE Number / Current Savings) ÷ log(1 + Real Return)

Your numbers

Anchors the timeline

$

401(k), IRA, brokerage, HSA — exclude primary residence

$

Actual take-home pay

$

The single most important input. Include rent, food, transport, insurance, travel.

After inflation. 4-5% for diversified stocks historically.

4% default (Trinity Study). 3.5% for 40+ year horizons.

Savings rate: 50% · Income: $80,000 · Saving: $40,000/yr

Results

Your FIRE Number

$1,000,000

Annual expenses ÷ withdrawal rate. The portfolio size that funds your lifestyle indefinitely.

Years to FIRE

12 years

Assumes steady contributions and the real return you entered.

Remaining to Save

$850,000

The gap between current savings and your FIRE number.

Progress

15.0%

How far you are along the path today. Progress accelerates as compounding kicks in.

You need $1,000,000 invested to retire on $40,000/year at a 4.0% safe withdrawal rate. At $40,000/month in contributions and 7% real returns, you'll reach financial independence in 12 years.

Savings Projection

Scenario Comparison

How different return rates affect your timeline

Return RateFIRE NumberYears to FIREAge at FIRE
5%$1,000,00014 yrs46
7%(current)$1,000,00012 yrs44
9%$1,000,00011 yrs43

How to use this calculator

Current age — Your age today. This anchors the timeline so you can see your age at FIRE. Starting at 25 vs 35 can mean a 10+ year difference in retirement date, even with the same savings rate.

Current invested assets — The total value of your investment accounts: 401(k), IRA, Roth, brokerage, HSA. Do not include your primary residence, emergency fund, or cars — only assets that generate returns and can be drawn down in retirement.

Annual expenses — What you spend per year in today's dollars. This is the single most important input: it determines both your FIRE number (expenses × 25) and your savings rate. Track this carefully for at least 3 months to get an accurate number.

Expected real return — Your after-inflation annual return. The S&P 500 has returned ~7% real historically, but a diversified portfolio with bonds may return 4–5%. Use a conservative number — overestimating returns is the #1 FIRE planning mistake.

Safe withdrawal rate — The percentage of your portfolio you'll withdraw in year one of retirement. 4% is the classic rule (Trinity Study). For retirements longer than 30 years, consider 3.5% or even 3% for extra safety. See our SWR calculator for Monte Carlo simulation.

Real-world examples

Chloe, 32, standard FIRE path

Chloe is a 32-year-old product manager earning $140,000 after tax with $180,000 invested. She spends $48,000 per year and saves the rest — a 66% savings rate. Her FIRE number = $48,000 × 25 = $1.2M. At a 5% real return and $92,000 annual contributions, she hits FIRE in approximately 9 years, at age 41.

Derek, 40, coast FIRE

Derek is 40, has $420,000 invested, and spends $55,000/year. Full FIRE would require$1.375M. At 5% real return, $420,000 grows to about $1.11M over 20 years even with zero further contributions — short of the target but close. To hit coast-FIRE status, he needs about $520,000 before he can stop contributing.

The $500/month difference

Take two 35-year-olds with identical $150,000 portfolios and $50,000 annual expenses (FIRE number: $1.43M at 3.5% SWR, 5% real return). Chloe saves $2,000/month and reaches FIRE in about 21 years, at age 56. Derek saves $2,500/month — only $500 more — and hits it in roughly 18.5 years, at age 53.5. That marginal $500/month buys back 2.5 years of life.

Formula & Methodology

FIRE number formula

FIRE Number = Annual Expenses ÷ Safe Withdrawal Rate

Example: $40,000 ÷ 0.04 = $1,000,000. At 3.5% SWR: $40,000 ÷ 0.035 = $1,142,857.

Years to FIRE calculation

Years = log(FIRE Number / Current Savings) ÷ log(1 + Real Return)

This assumes constant annual contributions. Actual projections use year-by-year compounding with contributions, which gives more accurate results for high savings rates.

Assumptions & limitations

  • Returns are assumed constant each year. Real markets fluctuate significantly — see our SWR calculator for Monte Carlo simulation.
  • Taxes are not modeled. Withdrawals from traditional accounts are taxed as income; Roth withdrawals are tax-free.
  • Healthcare costs before Medicare (age 65) are a major gap in most FIRE plans. Budget $15–20K/year for a couple.
  • Social Security is not included. Benefits starting at 62–70 can significantly reduce the portfolio needed.

Data sources

  • 4% rule: Trinity Study (Cooley, Hubbard, Walz, 1998), updated through 2024
  • S&P 500 real returns: ~7% (1926–2024, CRSP/S&P data)
  • Savings rate to years-to-FIRE mapping: based on the "Shockingly Simple Math" (MMM, 2012)

Frequently asked questions

What is the 4% rule?
The 4% rule comes from the 1998 Trinity Study, which analyzed US market data from 1926–1995. A retiree holding a 50/50 or 60/40 stock/bond portfolio who withdrew 4% in year one and adjusted for inflation thereafter had roughly a 95% success rate over rolling 30-year periods. For FIRE horizons of 40+ years, many experts suggest using 3–3.5% instead.
Why 25× annual expenses?
It's arithmetic: 1 ÷ 0.04 = 25. If you pick a 3.5% withdrawal rate, the multiple becomes 28.6×. At 3% it's 33×. The multiple scales directly with your chosen safe withdrawal rate.
What's the difference between lean / fat / coast / barista FIRE?
Lean FIRE: below $40k/year, sub-$1M nest egg. Fat FIRE: $100k+/year, $2.5M+ portfolio. Coast FIRE: current assets will compound to full FIRE by traditional retirement age without further contributions. Barista FIRE: coast plus part-time work for healthcare and basic expenses.
Does this account for inflation?
This calculator uses real (inflation-adjusted) returns, meaning both your return and your expenses are expressed in today's dollars. Don't mix nominal returns with today's-dollar expenses — that's a common error that overstates projections.
What about sequence-of-returns risk?
A severe bear market in the first 5–10 years of retirement can permanently impair a portfolio even if 30-year average returns are fine. Common mitigations: hold 1–3 years of expenses in cash, use a flexible withdrawal rule instead of strict 4%, or adopt a conservative equity glide path.
How does US healthcare factor in before Medicare?
It's the biggest hole in most FIRE plans. ACA marketplace plans typically run $500–$1,500/month; subsidies are possible based on reported income. Many experts suggest budgeting $15–20k/year for a couple's healthcare pre-65.
Should I include my home equity in FIRE calculations?
Generally no. Your primary residence doesn't generate income you can live on. If you plan to downsize or use a reverse mortgage, you can include the net proceeds you'd realize. But for most people, FIRE number = investable assets only.
What savings rate do I need for FIRE?
The "Shockingly Simple Math" shows: 50% savings rate ≈ 17 years to FIRE, 65% ≈ 10 years, 75% ≈ 7 years (at 5% real returns). Higher savings rates create a double benefit: you save more each year and need less in retirement. Use our savings rate calculator to find yours.
Disclaimer: This calculator is for educational purposes only. Projected returns are not guaranteed. Past performance does not predict future results. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.